FREE AT LAST??

The Arab world is trembling on the brink of a new freedom, a freedom they have never had, a freedom that doesn't fit into the Realpolitik of power balance and petroleum. Make no mistake about it: the old Bismark Realpolitik is very much alive and well in the world of the ayatollahs, the emirs, the pashas and the kings. But it might be coming to an end, and the end will not be pretty. It will not be pretty because people who finally rise against oppression have never learned what it means to be a part of government, a part of public consensus, a part of political freedom and of choice.

Russia, when the Romanovs were finally toppled, found itself in the grip of another autocrat. At least this new power that emerged in 1917 represented itself as being on the side of the oppressed. But then they too became, and perhaps in the era of Putin, still oppressors. Democracy simply doesn’t happen. It evolves. It rises from the culture, the thought, the writings, and the strivings toward a better life. In fact, the seminal work on the subject of authoritarianism is probably still Erich Fromm’s “Escape From Freedom.” He posits that people who have lived under autocratic rule end up with more of the same – because it is what they are used to.

Enough high-blown rhetoric! The facts in Egypt are simple: Mubarak has had twenty years to turn Egypt into a democracy, but he has, in the name of public order, a convenient haven for dictators, kept the country under the yoke of martial law. What’s more, he has been supported by America which gives billions of dollars in aid, billions without which the country might be in an ever worse state of poverty and need.

I have no time for Mubarak. That’s easy to say because I live in a comfortable apartment on downtown Toronto, where I can speak freely, and where I can enjoy peace, culture, and good food. So, as they say: “It’s easy for me to say.”

However horrid Mubarak has been, his sudden departure would be a catastrophe. Yes, it is true, that finally, in the face of spontaneous and apparently universal revolution, he has announced that he will step down and an election will be called. Yes, it is true that he seemed not to want to upset the peaceful demonstrators, until he decided to bring in paid goons and thugs who, for a price, would declare themselves to be his supporters. Of course, not all Mubarak supporters are thugs. Many are hard-working business and professional people who want the only thing that works: stability. Now the stability has vanished.

But it will become profoundly worse if Mubarak caves in and leaves tomorrow. There will be a political vacuum. The disparate parties jockeying for positions will proclaim themselves in charge. Those parties include the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood.
You can't elect a government in the streets. You can’t riot a country into democracy. When you do, the opportunists will arrive and power will devolve to a new tyrant. Washington, which does not have much of a record at nation-building, proposes that Mubarak step down, be replaced by the vice-president (whom the freedom-seekers detest) and have him chair a committee which will include the Muslim Brotherhood, and present a new constitution.

It is obvious that the “revolutionaries” are an amorphous, leaderless crowd. They share a common wish but they had better be careful what they wish for. Without leadership there can be no stability. But without a measured, legal rise to power, there will be little hope for the aspirations of millions to be fulfilled. However difficult it may be, they must pull back and begin a serious dialogue with the existing government. They cannot rely on edicts from the President. He must make contact with them, and they with him. There must be order or there will be chaos. Egypt cannot endure chaos on top of oppression,