CAREFUL WHAT YOU ASK FOR.

For a few minutes today (Friday) I sat glued to my TV. There is a wonderful breathlessness about all the commentators as they probe the realities behind the resignation of Mubarak. The networks – CBC Newsworld, CNN, MSNBC ( I didn’t bother with Fox) seem to be in a battle to be first and fastest with the latest word from the streets of Cairo. Suddenly everyone is an expert ion Egypt.

In a recent OpEd piece in the Times, the writer observed that two weeks ago most Americans wouldn’t be able to pick Mubarak out of a police line-up. Suddenly we have all grown wise. Suddenly we all have opinions about Egypt and the effect this “revolution” will have on the future of the Middle East and its relationship with the rest of the world, especially America. Recently I, another expert, wrote that I worried about the power vacuum that might be left if Mubarak quit. Now he has and everyone is signing on with their opinions. Carl Bernstein, a very good journalist worries that the “new” Egypt will not be the friend to America that Mubarak was. He also worried that the new regime may be less friendly to Israel. Everyone speculates. No one knows.

I know that Egypt is referred to officially as “The Arab Republic of Egypt.” I find that very strange. When Syria and Egypt made a political union they called it the U.A.R – the United Arab Republic, almost everyone who knew anything about the Middle East commented that the name was a misnomer because Egypt was not an Arab country. But now, all the commentators during the crisis refer to it as an Arab country and that Cairo is the centre of the Arab World. That definition comes easily to western pundits, but Cairo, while it may be the largest Muslim City (and I’m not sure about Jakarta in Indonesia) it is not the centre of the Arab world. Historically that centre is where the anointed Caliphs ruled: Baghdad. (“Anointed” is what has led to the outrageous and deadly battle between Shia and Sunni over the succession of Mohammed’s grandson Ali to the throne of Caliph. Twelve hundred years later and they are still k8illing each other.)

I presume that if you asked the same people who couldn’t pick Mubarak out of a police lineup, to name Arab countries, they would be all over the place. I would guess that many of them believe that Iran is an Arab country. It is not, Just as Pakistan and Indonesia are not Arab countries.

I enjoy splitting hairs. Not because I think it really matters, but because it is a reflection of how little so many people with so many opinions, really know.

I am no expert of course. I do not pretend to be. But I worry that power has passed to the army in Egypt. It was the army that was behind Nasser and Sadat and Mubarak. I suggest that even if there are to be elections that the winner will govern with the approval of the army. I suggest that if a radical Islamist movement should come out on top in an Egyptian election that the Constitution will be compromised and the army will step in. It will all be in the interests of “stability.” Which takes us right back to the last thirty years in Egypt. Mubarak declared martial law. It has never been lifted. It kept the country “secure.” The irony is that in his struggle to maintain control, Mubarak offered to “gradually loosen the martial law.”

They have a long way to go. I wish them well.